Physical scarcity is the main concern of operators
From 23/06/2026 al 28/08/26, zinc recorded an increase in prices of 18,8%, confirming itself as one of the liveliest non-ferrous metals. In the same period, It's Backwardation (cash prices higher than three-month prices) to dominate the scene at the LME, with a constant crescendo of the negative differential which reached i $ 250 ton the 28/08/26.
This sharp increase in spot prices is due to the physical scarcity of metal, so much so that stocks in LME warehouses dropped to 73.800 tons (pari a 2 days of world consumption).
We are seeing the same scenario as 2025, when the negative peak has reached $ 342 per ton the 23/10/25.
The shortage of metal is real and not manipulated and is due to the reduction in production of Western smelters due to interruptions and high energy costs, fires in the Kazzinc foundries (Kazakhstan) and in that of Cajamarquilla (Peru). Added to this was also the scarcity of zinc concentrates with consequent reduction in $ 110/ton of "treatment charges" i.e. the melting costs that the mines pay to the foundries to transform the Zn concentrates into ingots. In practice, smelters are currently producing at a loss due to the high purchase costs of concentrates and high energy costs with the risk of closures and/or suspension of production and consequently possible further shortage of metal.
According to experts, the scarcity of raw materials pushes prices up, while financial speculation remains temporarily on the sidelines.
In this situation, some relief could come from the recovery of Chinese exports with shipments to the LME warehouses in Hong Hong, but this does not appear simple for multiple reasons: domestic prices in China are higher than the LME and in addition Chinese smelters are also forced to pay more for zinc concentrates.
In short, there would still be room for further strengthening of spot prices, also in view of the recovery in demand which was absent during the summer period, provided that political tensions do not impose further disruptions.